Testing Oscar's Grind Roulette System
Oscar's grind strategy isn’t very well-known, but it is the subject of much discussion amongst professional roulette players. Even though this system is a little more complicated than many other systems, we feel that beginners can benefit from getting acquainted with the principles of this method. This is because the system is based on a rational approach of slowly grinding out a profit.
The origins of Oscar’s grind are believed to date back to around 1965 when Allan Wilson discussed it in his book The Casino Gambler’s Guide. While we will break Oscar’s grind down below, the main idea of this strategy is that roulette is a game of streaks. The plan is essentially to wager smaller amounts during losing streaks and then increasing the stake size during winning streaks.
How Oscar’s Grind system Works
We just want to give you a heads up that the Oscar’s grind algorithm might look somewhat confusing. However, rest assured that everything is quite elementary. We will do our best to simplify things in the following parameters.
- We only wager on even-money outside bets. (Red/Black, Even/Odd, High/Low)
- We stake our first 1-unit bet.
- For every loss, we do not change the bet amount and we repeat the same move as the previous spin.
- For each win, we increase the stake amount by 1 unit.
- We use this algorithm until we reach a net profit of 1 unit. Once we reach that benchmark, we simply repeat the cycle.
- It’s important to understand that our goal is to gain a single unit. If the progression opens the possibility of exceeding a 1-unit profit, then we should lower the stake so that the potential profit is exactly 1 unit. For example, let’s say that you are down 3 units. This would normally call for a 6-unit bet which would potentially put us back up by 3 units. However, we would reduce the bet to 4 units so that the potential profit would be exactly 1 unit.
This flowchart should clear up any confusion.
Some can see similarities to the Contra Bet system while others compare it with Paroli. At any rate, additional modifications can make this system less risky and more consistent. Also, some players who have used this system recommend that you should start a new iteration after 5 consecutive losses. Let’s look at how Oscar’s grind flows over the course of 10 imaginary rounds.
|1||Loss||−1||Bet size stays the same|
|1||Loss||−2||Bet size stays the same|
|1||Loss||−3||Bet size stays the same|
|1||Loss||−4||Bet size stays the same|
|1||Loss||−5||Bet size stays the same|
|1||Win||−4||Bet size is 2 units now|
|2||Loss||−6||Bet size remains 2 units|
|2||Win||−4||Bet size increases to 3 units|
|3||Win||−1||Only 2 units needed to achieve profit|
Putting Oscar’s Grind to the Test
As we do with almost any system we encounter, we will now run a test to see how effective Oscar’s grind is. We will take all of the relevant formulas and enter them in Google Sheets before using a random number generator to simulate the outcomes. We will use four players with $1,000 each and see how their bankrolls fare over 500 rounds. The chart below shows the results and the dynamics of the bankrolls throughout the session.
We were quite surprised to see that all four players ended up making a profit. Player 1’s profit of $120 was the largest while the $74 that Player 3 netted was the smallest gain. As you can see, the progression of profits was generally very gradual. The most significant takeaway is that this system appears to be a viable long-term strategy.
One thing that sticks out is Player 2’s arc.This occurred because a new cycle started on the 194th move. In other words, the value of the rate gradually accumulated due to the fact that the profit for the current iteration did not reach +1. By the end of the iteration, the bet amount reached $67 causing a more dynamic reaction. That is why we see very dynamic bankroll fluctuations within the framework of this particular betting cycle. Still, the player managed to complete the betting cycle which resulted in his game and bankroll becoming more dynamic.
The Pitfalls of Oscar’s Grind
A possible pitfall of Oscar’s grind was demonstrated by Player 2 in the above simulation. The catch is that you may find yourself in a situation where achieving your goal of a 1-unit profit in a betting cycle will take too long. During this time, the value of the bets accumulates which leads to more dynamic bankroll fluctuations. This increases the risk of major drawdowns. As such, the sequences of losses and wins must fall out in your favor to be successful. Wouldn’t you know it? Luck comes into play. Of course, a good bankroll reserve will reduce your risks and so you can win back the lost funds.
Oscar’s grind stands out among the vast majority of roulette strategies. Its success has a lot to do with how the system calls for multiple betting cycles and the fact that the goal of each cycle is to earn a very minimal profit. In roulette, setting short-term and realistic goals is one of the keys to success.
In the grand scheme of things, we can classify Oscar’s Grind as a low-risk strategy. This approach calls for caution and consistency. Nevertheless, no roulette betting system is risk-free and Oscar’s grind comes with some risk. For instance, you may find yourself stuck in a betting cycle and struggling to achieve that golden 1-unit profit. This scenario is akin to slowly drowning. This is why many roulette pros will reset the cycle after a certain number of losses.
Unlike so many other systems, we find that Oscar’s grind is an effective approach to the long game. You probably won’t win a lot unless you run incredibly hot, but your chances of doing severe damage to your bankroll is minimal. That’s what makes it a grind.