Testing and Analyzing Paroli System
We have already tested and analyzed the Martingale roulette strategy. Now, let's look at its relative - the reverse Martingale. The essence of this system is just as simple: if you lose, you set the initial minimum bet. If you win, you double it.
How does Reverse Martingale work?
We take a conditional minimum bet, for example, $1. We bet on even money bets (red/black, even/odd, higher/lower). If we win, we double the bet; if we lose, we return to the original bet. Below is a diagram of the algorithm for clarity.
$1 bet on black. Let's say the bet didn't win, and you lost.
Again we bet $1 on black. This time the bet won.
We double, that is, we bet $ 2 on black. We won again.
We bet $4 on black. For example, if we lose, then we return to the baseline.
$1 bet on black. And already, depending on the outcome, we continue the algorithm.
Our test of Anti Martingale system
Now, let's test the Paroli system the same way the Martingale was tested. In our Martingale simulator written in Google Sheets, we change the progression formula and get a reverse Martingale simulator. Let's set the number of spins/moves to 1000 for the accuracy of statistical data. Let's take three players with $1000 bankrolls and start the process. We get the following result:
In the general case, the progression of Reverse Martingale is diminishing, in contrast to Martingale. This is because the odds of losing on even money bets are higher than winning. So, if you double the bet on a loss, the progression will increase, and if you double it on a win, it will fall. However, as we can see, Player №1 had five instances during the game where he pulled ahead and stood at a net gain; Player №2 once entered a big plus - reached the state of a bankroll of $2883.
However, according to the algorithm, after that, the series of winning spins ended, and he lowered his amount back and did not go into a net gain again throughout the rest of the session; Player №3 was not lucky at all - the necessary sequence of winning rounds did not manifest during his gameplay to get a profit. All three players generally completed the game with almost the same result - $482, $498, and $469, respectively. And the peaks on the graphs are the peaks of the efficiency of their progressions.
We believe that this example is enough to come to the necessary conclusions and recommendations at this stage. The Reverse Martingale system is a reverse progression, so your bankroll will inevitably go to zero in the long run. However, unlike Martingale, it is less risky, and if it stops at the right time, it can bring you a tangible profit.
Explanation of pitfalls and when betting reverse Martingale
Let's summarize the weaknesses and advantages:
Betting limits can be a barrier. Even though live roulettes often have maximum limits for even money bets and are capped at $10,000 or more, they can still be much lower in many casinos. Therefore, a successful series of winning rounds can collapse because it is impossible to bet a high amount. This strategy explains that the longer you play, the more you lose. Therefore, you need to make the right decision about when to stop. To get the positive result you are after, you need a lot of moves, consequently a lot of time and patience.
So, we have tested the Reverse Martingale strategy of 3 players. Usually, this system is compared directly to the Martingale so we will do the same. While the classic Martingale is an increasing progression and at the same time has a high chance of losing the entire bankroll quickly. Paroli is a negative progression that smoothly leads the bankroll to zero due to the low volatility of even money bets. Still, at the same time, it is impossible to lose everything in its money instantly.
The key to success when following the Reverse Martingale algorithm is to stop in time with several consecutive wins that will significantly replenish the initial bankroll. Thus, Reverse Martingale is a viable strategy; moreover, it includes the chance to raise the bankroll quickly and significantly.
Such chances are, for example, for 7 consecutive wins - 0.71%, for 10 - 0.09%. Therefore, in my subjective opinion, Reverse Martingale has a more rational essence than the Martingale. As an idea, these two systems can be combined and used interchangeably. For example, if you are not successful and lose a certain amount of money with Paroli, then you can compensate for the bankroll with Martingale.